machine for the money

In the first article we have spent on this blog in the U.S. presidential election and its relationship to the polls, we made reference city, like many other observers, the site of synthesis of the various surveys in the United united by Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight blog.

This site, which already gave Obama the winner a week ago, confirmed and even strengthened its forecasts, did not hesitate to say that the strong support% of the popular vote and 303 electoral votes (against 234 for his rival) Obama has a 80% chance of winning the election! While these results are confirmed, but to a much lesser extent, the site Realpolitics, which gives 201 electoral votes for Obama, 191 for his opponent and 146 undecided. The nuance is.

But Le Monde today tells us that part of the electoral debate in the United States these days focuses on the following question: but who is this mysterious Nate Silver, whose comparative surveys blog seems to make more most authoritative among observers? Continue reading